How to bet based on the True Count using the Hi-Lo system
Most all of the players edge comes from being able to bet larger amounts of money while the game is favorable to the player (more high cards compared to low cards) and bet as little as possible while the game is unfavorable to the player. Thanks to us being able to keep a count that represents the weight of the shoe we can do this quite easily.
Traditional MIT betting strategy
The MIT betting strategy attempts to optimize the players winning percentage by basing their betting strategy on the Kelly Criterion. The Kelly Criterion indicates that the players bet should be proportional to the players advantage, so the higher the count the more the player will bet. The MIT betting strategy does this by taking the true count and subtracting 1 from it and then multiplying that value by the players betting unit. The reason they subtract 1 is to cancel out the house advantage of .3 to .5 percent. This works because every single increment in the Hi-Lo count represents a change of about .5% advantage. In the example below the betting unit is $25 and the table minimum is $5.
Amount to Bet = (True Count - 1) * Betting Unit
Improving the MIT betting strategy
The step of subtracting 1 from the true count in the MIT betting strategy is completely unnecessary. All you need to do is wait until the true count is +2 before you start betting, once the true count is +2 you know you have an advantage and it is time start pushing money through the system. Doing this will still maintain the same winning percentage, and you will have bet more money in the same amount of time giving you a higher end bankroll. In the example below the betting unit is $25 and the table minimum is $5.
True Count below +2: Amount to Bet = Table Minimum
True Count +2 or above: Amount to Bet = True Count * Betting Unit
Side by side comparison of the Traditional and Improved MIT betting strategy
The results shown below were produced running a simulation of 1 billion games for each player. Each player had a betting unit of $25 and the max bet was capped at $250. Player 1 used the traditional MIT betting strategy and Player 2 used the improved MIT betting strategy. Each player had their own table and played one on one against the dealer (heads up), and neither of the players were using adjusted numbers, also known as indices. The shoe penetration was set to 75% using a shoe of 6 decks, so after 4.5 decks had been played the dealer re shuffled.
Player 2 with the improved strategy ended up making 59.7 million dollars more than player 1 over the course of 1 billion games, which works out to 5.97 cents more for each game. And this is just for a betting unit of $25, if it was a $100 betting unit the difference would be 23.9 cents per game which is 4 times 5.97.
Guerrilla Betting
By now, you should be realizing that it is all about getting as much money as you can afford out on the table while the shoe is in your favor. To demonstrate this I will cover what is called guerrilla play, which realistically can only be used in team play because you would draw to much casino attention if you jumped your bet from $5 to $250. But at the same time will make you feel more comfortable about betting higher if, for example, you are not quite sure whether the true count is +3 or +4. Guerrilla betting means to just pick a static large betting unit that you use for whenever the shoe is in your favor.
True Count below +2: Amount to Bet = Table Minimum
True Count +2 or above: Amount to Bet = $250
Side by side comparison of the Traditional and Improved MIT betting strategy, and Guerrilla Betting
The results shown below were produced running a simulation of 1 billion games for each player. Player 1 used the traditional MIT betting strategy and Player 2 used the improved MIT betting strategy, and Player 3 used the guerrilla betting strategy. Each player used their respective betting amounts as shown in the previous sections. Each player had their own table and played one on one against the dealer (heads up). The shoe penetration was set to 75% using a shoe of 6 decks, so after 4.5 decks had been played the dealer re shuffled.
Even though Player 3's winning percentage was only slightly higher than Player 1 and Player 2 he made more much money in the same amount of time because he was betting much more per hand. Player 3 made 364 million more than player 2, for 36.4 cents more per game, and 423 million more than Player 1, for 42.3 cents more per game. So, if you find yourself at the table worrying about whether or not the true count is closer to +3 or +4, don't worry about it, just put the money out there. However, it is still very important that you don't make a betting mistake when the true count is lower, around +1 and +2.
Winning Percentages for different Betting Units
Now that you know its all about increasing your bet spread (the difference between your minimum bet and maximum bet), here are the winning percentages you can expect for several different betting units. The higher the betting unit the higher the effective bet spread and so, the higher the winning percentage. The max bet for each player was set to 10 times each players individual betting unit, and the minimum bet was set to $5, and none of the players were using adjusted numbers, also known as indices.
